The Senate voted by 60 - 39 to limit debate on the health care bill, setting up a vote for final passage tomorrow at 7am ET. Debate continues on the bill this evening.

Source: C-SPAN.org

As part of this continuing debate, the minority (the Republican caucus) was allotted one hour for remarks. As part of these remarks, Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) asked that the bloc be divided evenly among several members of the Republican caucus. John Thune (R-SD) received the third segment which can be viewed in its entirety below.

Sen. Thune directed much of his ten minute address to the issue of the deficit. He began by presenting convoluted percentages of non-defense budget spending over the preceding several years. He was attempting to illustrate that the Democrats contributed more to the deficit and that our current deficit is not attributable to President George W. Bush or the Republican party.

He then lifted a blank presentation board and a marker. Next, he began to write numbers, in billions of dollars, relating to the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of the Healthcare bill's cost. The first number represented the CBO's estimated surplus ($132 B), over a ten year period, resulting from the implementation of the Senate's Healthcare bill. The next few lines depict Sen. Thune's interpreted inaccuracies of the CBO's estimate.

Sen. Thune then adds the 132 billion to his list of erroneous estimates and makes an arithmetic error:

   132 - 200 - 72 - 47 = -177

His numbers don't add up to -177; the correct computation yields -187. We have a US Senator attempting to illustrate why the CBO is wrong and he can't add four numbers of three digits or less together. Simply stunning. But perhaps what's even more stunning is that nobody caught this error; either in the planning stages or during the remaining remarks.

The US House or Representatives officially passed H.R. 3962, The Affordable Health for America Act, at 11:15 PM ET upon the confirmation of the tally by House Leader Nancy Pelosi (D); although the qualifying number of votes were cast 8 minutes earlier:

The final vote was 220 Ayes to 215 Nays:

The lone Republican voting for the measure was Rep. Joseph Cao of Louisiana's Second District.

The House adjourned until Monday at 6 PM, after a fourteen and a half hour session. There will probably be several press conferences from each party at some point; you can watch live on CSPAN.org or check your local TV Listing for the channel number in your area.

Update [12:25 AM, CT 9/8/2009]: Immediately following the passage of the bill, and before the Democratic press conference, CSPAN fielded callers from around the country. Below is one of these such exchanges:

@6:08

Announcer: Lets hear what you have to say about the debate today. This is Pam in San Diego, California against the bill; go ahead.

Pam: Yeah. My name is Pam, and I am very much against any bill, on any kind of insurance, because insurance is not an airbag to protect you. Insurance does not buy healthcare; there is something, just, infinitely wrong with the idea that doctors are actually taking care of people.

[emphasis added]

Source: CSPAN.org Video Library

The bolded text above is probably the most vile and incompetent critique of healthcare reform possible. Insurance does buy healthcare, in fact it's the purpose of having insurance; you spend money, i.e. you buy insurance, and in turn, you receive healthcare. Insurance is the exchange of money for access to healthcare within a distributed stress system. The general concept of insurance places roughly equal burden upon all participants in exchange for assistance when a statistical anomaly occurs, such as cancer. Insurance buys access to, in this example, healthcare for cancer; this healthcare is probably not affordable, without insurance, for the average American [pg. 5].

Secondly, the purpose of doctors is to take care of people; which I thought was a common sense notion, but apparently I was wrong. The Hippocratic Oath, the corner stone of ethical medicine, seems to hint at a doctor's need to care for their patients:

...

I will apply dietetic measures for the benefit of the sick according to my ability and judgment; I will keep them from harm and injustice.

...

Whatever houses I may visit, I will come for the benefit of the sick, remaining free of all intentional injustice, of all mischief and in particular of sexual relations with both female and male persons, be they free or slaves.

...

Source: PBS NOVA

The statements by Pam above, are without a doubt, the most ignorant things I have ever heard relating to the healthcare debate.

There were no new polls released today, so I'm calling the polling projections final. The first graph for each state uses our traditional methodology, while the second graph incorporates every poll, regardless of partisan affiliation:

Remember, the point of our projections is not to predict the winner, but rather to access the accuracy of public polling. That being said, the hope is that our projections are accurate under the assumption that the polls were accurate.

You can follow the returns live at each states' respective Secretaty of State website; I've included links below:

Virginia
New Jersey (this link is sketchy, but I'm assuming they'll update the page.)
California CD-10 (not updated yet)
New York CD-23 (not updated yet)
Minnesota: St. Paul Mayor | Minneapolis Mayor

I'll also be recording the historical real-time result; I'll try and post a graph every hour or so depicting the vote totals as a function of time.

There were twenty-seven new polls since last week's update:

I'm not going to spend a whole lot of time discussing the gubernatorial elections, because I plan to do that tomorrow, but I will leave you with a few thoughts to ponder and the latest polling projections:

I'll first address the obvious; New Jersey is very close and Virginia isn't. McDonnell (R) could win by 20% while Corzine (D) or Christie (R) could win by 20 votes. There is no automatic recount in New Jersey, but any candidate can request a recount within 15 days of the election.

Secondly, Sarah Palin has injected herself into the New Jersey fray with a statement on facebook:

Despite what candidate Chris Daggett is claiming, I have never contacted him or his campaign. I have never asked him to drop out of the NJ Governor's race. Now, if a politician is going to play loose with facts like this, the electorate needs to know it.

So, to the good people of New Jersey, please know that Daggett's claims are false. I?ve never even suggested he should drop out of the race. But, come to think of it?

- Sarah Palin

Source: Sarah Palin on Facebook.com

Nobody inclined to vote for Daggett (I) gives two shits what Palin thinks, about anything. In fact her innuendo, for Dagget to drop out, would definitely not help Christie. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll of New Jersey asked which second candidate Daggett voter's preferred; Corzine led by 10%, 39 to 29. Another recent poll by Public Policy Polling (D) made the same determination. Daggett is helping Christie at this point, but Palin is too stupid to realize this.

Obama also campaigned for Corzine over the weekend. The cover of today's New York Times prominently displayed Obama and Corzine in a traditional rally pose. This is definitely positive exposure for Corzine and could translate into votes, although New Jersey does not have same day registration.

And finally, the campaign fundraising reports from New Jersey I promised last week:

                 Corzine (D)     Christie (R)     Daggett (I)
Receipts      $ 24,057,600.20  $ 11,720,288.00  $ 1,312,632.00
Expenditures  $ 23,645,190.76  $  8,804,745.66  $ 1,161,907.13
Cash on Hand  $    412,409.44  $  2,915,542.34  $   150,724.87

Submission Date: 10/23/2009

Source: New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission

Corzine clearly won the fundrace, but will it translate to a victory tomorrow evening?

I'm waiting until tomorrow to post the final projections as there are likely polls in the field today that will be released tomorrow. I'll have updated graphs, as well as my final thoughts before the polls close tomorrow at 8 PM ET in New Jersey and 7 PM ET in Virginia.

There are also a number of other elections tomorrow with intriguing ramifications. There are two elections to fill US House vacancies, CA-10 and NY-23. NY-23 is a Republican district with three two major candidates after the moderate Republican withdrew and endorsed the Democratic candidate to spite the National Republican Party. CA-10 is a solidly Democratic district with a PVI of D+11; this distinct will be won by Democrat Lt Gov. John Garamendi.

A number of other states also have referendums and propositions on the ballot.

More tomorrow.

Nine new polls as the elections loom a week away:

I know I mentioned this last week, but the New Jersey graph looks almost identical to the 2008 Minnesota Senate Election and the addition of a Daggett (I) trendline to the New Jersey Graph below solidifies my point:

Christie's (R) decline seems to be linearly associated with Daggett's surge while Corzine's (D) support has remained consistent. The most recent sample points do however illustrate a departure from this correlation; Dagget's and Christie's numbers have declined in the last week while Corzine's have increased. Christie's earlier support seems to have migrated to Daggett, and now that Corzine is back in the race, some Daggett voters are shifting to their second choice, Corzine.

In the next week I expect a minor Christie resurgence, and a solidification of Daggett's support around the 15% threshold. I expect both major party candidates to head into next Tuesday's election hovering around the 40% mark.

Virginia is another story, Deeds (D) has all but lost:

Deeds was dominated in the money race, and had perception issues during the debates; the last of which occurred on Tuesday, October 20th:

Deeds and McDonnell were generally polite, although they interrupted each other several times in a series of feisty exchanges made possible by an open-ended format.

When the moderator asked Deeds which taxes he would support increasing, McDonnell tried to jump in: "I can answer that!"

"No, you can't!" Deeds responded, glaring at McDonnell before saying that he would consider raising any tax tied to transportation funding.

Still, the lively 60-minute debate appeared to do little to change the dynamics of a race in which Deeds trails McDonnell in public opinion polls, fundraising and advertising. The questions covered mostly familiar ground, and there seemed to be no game-changing moments.

Source: Washington Post

The last pre-election fundraising reports were due on Wednesday; the highlights are below:

                 Deeds (D)       McDonnell (R)
Receipts      $ 16,264,941.15   $ 21,466,447.67
Expenditures  $ 15,327,168.54   $ 19,633,513.91
Cash on Hand  $    937,772.61   $  1,832,933.76

Filing Period: 10/01/2009 - 10/21/2009

Source: Virginia State Board of Elections

Deeds was basically defeated in every aspect of the campaign, and his polling numbers reflect these various deficiencies. Our mathematical projection gives Deeds less than a 1% chance of victory, and from a purely logical standpoint, this seems realistic. Deeds has lost, unless something absurd happens.

New Jersey also conducted their final debate last week on Thursday, October 22nd:

The third and final debate in the tightening New Jersey governor's race turned into something of a free-for-all on Thursday night as Gov. Jon S. Corzine tried to portray the state's battered economy as poised for a slingshotlike recovery, while his Republican rival, Christopher J. Christie, depicted him as lamentably out of touch.

But the two were constantly harassed by a pesky Christopher J. Daggett, the independent candidate, who pointed to a new poll that showed him within striking distance, and who taunted Mr. Corzine and Mr. Christie over property taxes, corruption and the environment.

The hourlong debate, broadcast on the jazz station WBGO in Newark, broke little new ground, but allowed the three men to deliver their closing arguments.

Source: New York Times

The latest fundraising filings from New Jersey have not yet been posted, although the 11 day deadline has passed. Hopefully the data will be available next week. In the meantime you can read through last period's reports at the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission. Corzine bankrolled his own campaign, while Christie and Daggett relied upon matching public funds. As a result Corzine had the capability to out raise his opponents, which he has done up to this point and I see no reason why this trend when end with the release of the new data.

More in a week for our probably last polling update. I'll also, hopefully, have a few other surprises.

A number of polls out of New Jersey, and a single from Virgina:

Based upon the frequency of new surveys, most pollsters seem to have given up on the Virginia Gubernatorial election. Deeds (D) has led in just two polls since January, and currently trails by about seven points. Corzine, on the other hand, has done a much more effect job of closing his summer gap.

Both states had debates in the last week, but they're unlikely to make or break November's voting. I'll start with the Virginia debate which took place last Monday evening. The debate appears to have been fairly boring, with little fanfare. Bloomberg provided a pretty good round up, from which I've excerpted below:

During the debate, McDonnell (R) sought to tie Deeds (D) to the push by the Obama administration to reduce emissions blamed for global warming through a limited number of permits that companies could trade and sell. McDonnell said the plan would raise utility costs by $1,700 per family, a claim that the Annenberg Public Policy Center's Factcheck.org has said is "not true."

Deeds said McDonnell "wants this campaign to be decided on issues he's going to lie about."

Source: Bloomberg

The issue of taxes seemed to have been largely ignored as was McDonnell's old graduate thesis. The focus of the debate was the state's economy; Deeds stated that Clinton and Obama better served the state's economy while McDonnell stated that the Bush's had done a better job. It's interesting that McDonnell explicitly stated that he support Bush era policies even though the state in which he is seeking has office voted against Bush's party for the first time in 44 years.

The New Jersey candidates participated in a recorded debate last Friday, which was later broadcast on Saturday. The New York Times published an excellent synopsis of the debate:

Gov. Jon S. Corzine (D) chastised his two rivals (Christopher J. Christie, the Republican, and Christopher J. Daggett, the independent) for "trying to pretend that the recession is only in New Jersey," and warned that Mr. Christie would offer tax cuts to wealthy individuals and big businesses at the expense of middle-class families.

Mr. Daggett criticized the governor's policies on taxes and spending and ridiculed Mr. Christie for proposing a variety of tax cuts without explaining what budget cuts he would use to pay for them.

...

Mr. Christie, who focused most of his critique on Mr. Corzine, was not about to be upstaged by Mr. Daggett, who put in a strong performance in the first debate and has seen his poll numbers rise while Mr. Christie has seen his drop.

Source: NY Times

Corzine appears to be aptly positioned to take the lead heading into the final weeks as Dagget continues to poll strongly. It's neck and neck, but Christie is trending in the wrong direction. The New Jersey race strongly mirrors Minnesota's 2008 Senate contest based upon the trend lines and the emergence of a legitimate third party candidate.

There is tentatively one more Virginia debate, and the potential for two more New Jersey debates; the next of which will be on Thursday.

More in a week.

Numerous polls from this week, and a few last releases from last:

Nothing fundamentally changed; Corzine (D) still modestly trails while, Deeds (D) remains further behind:

I first want to talk about the upcoming debate in Virginia. The debate started at 8 PM ET today, and is sponsored by the League of Women Voters and AARP. If you live in the Virginia viewing area, the debate should be broadcast on the NBC affiliate.

This is a big stage for Deeds; he needs to directly address the issue of taxing as it relates to his transportation plan. He stumbled last debate and it appears to have hurt him in the polls. He must clarify his position if he still hopes to emerge victorious in just three short weeks.

Moving North up the Atlantic Coast, the Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey debated last Thursday. NJ.com has a brisk recap if you're interested. The discussion was apparently very heated and at times focused on Christie's (R) heavy set physique. I don't think this debate matters in any way shape or form. It's an off year election where most of the voting population probably hasn't tuned into the top of the ticket debates, to think that the Lieutenant Governor's debate affects public opinion is probably a step too far.

Then on Saturday, the New Jersey Star-Ledger endorsed their candidate:

The Star-Ledger today endorses independent candidate Chris Daggett and recommends his election as the next governor of New Jersey.

The newspaper's decision is less a rejection of Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie than a repudiation of the parties they represent, both of which have forfeited any claim to the trust and confidence of the people of New Jersey. They share responsibility for the state's current plight.

Source: Star-Ledger Editorial Board at NJ.com

This is excellent news for Corzine, perhaps better than had he himself been endorsed. Dagget (I) appears to be drawing a fair amount of support away from Christie, while Corzine's baseline has remained steady. Dagget's (I) support seems to have consolidated after his esteemed debate performance on the first of the month. The next NJ debate takes place this Friday, October 16th. The three leading candidates will again take the stage, but this time at William Patterson University. The debate will be broadcast on TV and online through the NJ Network (PBS).

I'll try and update the graphs to reflect Dagget's numbers but I'm not making any promises. More in a week.

The latest round of Virginia polling accounts for September 18th's gubernatorial debate, while New Jersey's candidates hosted their first debate last Thursday:

The current NJ projection will likely change when the public reaction from the first debate is factored into the polling; but for now Christie (R) still leads:

I haven't watched the entire NJ debate, but a complete video is available [NJ Network] as well as a summary from the Washington Post. From what I have watched, the following exchange, as summarized by the Washington Post, reflects the dynamics of each candidate and the three main choices New Jerseyans will have come November 3rd:

If the race turned only on Corzine's record, he would probably lose. But Christie has vulnerabilities as well. He is a former U.S. attorney who made his reputation prosecuting politicians of both parties, and he has used those skills to prosecute the case against the incumbent. But he has yet to offer a credible plan to solve the budget woes.

The next governor will face a budget deficit estimated at $8 billion. Christie has pledged he will not raise taxes, but cannot say how he would balance the budget without new revenue. He has identified possible areas, to cut but they fall short of what is necessary to get the job done. Corzine and independent candidate Chris Daggett scoffed at Christie's remedies.

"Mr. Christie has no plan," Corzine said. "It's a fantasy." Daggett, who would cut some taxes but also significantly expand the state sales tax, chimed in: "It's easy to criticize when you have no plan of your own. . . . The tooth fairy is not going to come to solve this problem."

Source: Washington Post

The New Jersey election seems to have been reduced to the following question: Would you rather stay on the current path, or try something completely new and unquantifiable? In the 2008 presidential election, New Jerseyans choose the later, by electing Obama, but will they remain loyal to the incumbent Democrat?

This week we've seen a big change in Virginia polling. Last week the race was within two points, now there's a thirteen point spread:

The National Review Online seems to attribute this sudden rise by McDonnell (R), and subsequent decline by Deeds (D) to a post-debate press conference. During the debate Deeds stated that he would "not raise taxes" to pay for his transportation plan, but afterward he appeared to flounder on the issue as evidenced in the following video:

Creigh Deeds simply needed to take a position on whether to raise taxes to pay for his transportation plan, and he imploded. I don't think either position would have necessarily hurt him politically, but choosing and then changing his position definitely wasn't a good idea. The next debate is October 12th, and he better be prepared to clarify his position, by simply choosing a position, or he will lose this election.

More in a week.

The polling from New Jersey coalesced during the past week, while Virginia's numbers still seem to be transitioning:

Corzine (D) still trails by about seven points, but the last time the trend lines were parallel he was down by ten; Corzine has consolidated a net gain of three points in the last month. He will need to increase this rate of change within the next thirty-six days to win, but the race is clearly beginning to shift toward the Democrat in typical New Jersey fashion:

The single new poll from Virginia simply serves to confirm the trend of the previous week. Deeds (D) is down by about two with a month left and anything could happen; but for the moment, McDonnell (R) has the advantage:

This week I want to focus on the debate schedule for each gubernatorial election; I'll begin with Virginia.

The Deeds and McDonnell campaigns have been pushing for various changes to the debate schedule, but for the moment there looks to be four debates scheduled. Two have already happened, but more on that later. Here's the current schedule:

Date                  Location           Recap
July 27th          VA Bar Assoc        WA-Times
September 12th*   Radio One Forum
September 17th      Fairfax COC     Times-Dispatch
October 12th         LWV/AARP
October ??             WSLS

[*] Appears to have been canceled.
Source: Bob McDonnell Press Release

Both Virginia campaigns are still debating about the debates, so things may change going forward, but for now this is the schedule. Now onto New Jersey and their more organized debate schedule.

There are two debates sanctioned by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission and potentially two more commissioned by the New Jersey Media markets:

Date             Sponsor        Location
October 1st      NJ ELNC      NJ Network TV
October 16th     NJ ELNC      Will Pat. Univ
October 22nd     WBGO FM          Radio
October ???*     ABC Affil      TV 7-8 PM

[*] Negotiations ongoing, Corzine (D) has
    not committed.
Source: NJ.com

Independent candidate Chris Dagget will also participate in all debates held within New Jersey. There will also be a debate between the Lieutenant Governor candidates on October 8th sponsored by the Leadership New Jersey Consortium.

If you live in either New Jersey or Virginia I would highly encourage you to participate in the electoral process by watching or listening to the debates.

More in a week.

The tide has definitely shifted in the Commonwealth of Virginia with four new polls, as New Jersey's data remained fairly stagnant over the last week:

I really have nothing to say about New Jersey; Corzine (D) continues to trail having only lead in one partisan poll since February. Corzine has clearly solidified his base around 40, but Christie (R) has lost ground in the last month, likely due to the US Attorney's loan scandal. We really need more data to determine whether Christie's downside will continue.

Virginia's 2009 Gubernatorial election just got interesting. Three non-partisan pollsters showed the race within five points at some point during the last week. The election is basically neck and neck according to our projection:

The reason for McDonnell's (R) decline can almost certainly be traced to his 1989 thesis in which he stated that working women were "detrimental" to the family. Deeds' (D) effort to highlight this apparent weak point clearly paid dividends in the polls.

I took a look at the two polls that provided publicly available cross tabs, Rasmussen Reports and the Washington Post in an attempt to glean more information about Deeds' surge. The basic post-thesis hypothesis is that Deeds' performance should have increased in the female voting bloc; unfortunately neither poll provided any gender specific information, at any level.

More in a week.